using 5th order polynomial regression to track the size of the Largest Pumpkin at the Canfield Fair

The 164th Canfield Fair starts today, which will contains some of my favorite happenings of the year:

Children and horses in costume...


The "Baking by Men" competition...


And the largest pumpkin of the year...


The mega-gourd tent is definitely worth checking out.

Interestingly, one can view the quickening rise over the years for the size of the largest pumpkin.

Check out the ballooning sizes over the years:


We can take this data and enter it into a predictive regression model to estimate the size of the pumpkin in 2010, given recent growth trends.


The 5th order polynomial representing the regression is shown by the green line, weaving between the orange data points.

Using this predictive model, given recent trends in the size of the award-winning pumpkins at the Canfield Fair, the weight in 2010 will be ... a shade over 1,114 pounds.



How close will this estimate be to the winning weight in 2010?